There's no other way to describe, what the outcome of this situation will look like. Unless, as the White House has stated, a peaceful agreement can be reached over the South Ossetia province. For now, I think we can expect some serious casualties, as reports seem to highlight in one way or another, that civilians seem to be the targets, for BOTH sides.
The down side of this in any measure is that, Georgia has become an ally of the U.S. since the break-up of the Soviet Union. Georgia is also the third largest troop contributor (behind England) to the allied force in Iraq, with 2,000 troops in country. Georgia has also been seeking entry into NATO for several of those post USSR years.
So far, there are few tangibly accurate reports, some of which are speculative in nature, coming out of the region. So, from what is circulating thus far through the wires, here are a few of the details that are available that are relative amongst many of the sources.
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has wanted to "reclaim" South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, for some time. Which is fueling arguments by Russia that Georgia has instigated this mess. Furthermore, conjectural reports are of Georgian shelling of a barracks that has killed 10 Russian Peacekeepers and wounded another 30. Russia has stated that their incursion into Georgian territories, was to defend Russian citizens from what they are calling an "ethnic cleansing." South Ossetia of which, does apparently hold a significant Russian population. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has invoked an 'in defense of Russian citizens' angle when stating, "In accordance with the constitution and federal law, I, as president of Russia, am obliged to protect lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are located. We won't allow the death of our compatriots go unpunished." Putin has also chimed in with the notation that a Georgian attack will draw retaliation. Russia has sent a coulumn of tanks towards the provincial capital (Tskhinvali) of South Ossetia, which is expected to arrive by later this evening.
On the other side of the coin, Georgia has laid claims that Russian bombers have been targeting Georgian cities, as well as Vaziani military base which is located near the Georgian capital. Georgi has claimed they've thus far shot down four Russian aircraft attacking inside Georgia. They've also stated that the Russian "peacekeepers" have been aiding the separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Saakashvili brought an interesting thought to bear when he mentioned that the timing of the attack was not coincidental, referring to the Olympics. "Most decision makers have gone for the holidays, Brilliant moment to attack a small country." In response, Saakashvili has announced a full military mobilization including reservists.
Regardless of who started it, the altercation needs to be quelled, and quickly. As this threatens to engulf both Georgia and Russia in an all out war. And a war in this region could be devastating to many.
3 comments:
Some of the recent updates (well.. within the last hour recent);
Unconfirmed civilian casualties in the area of 1,400 per South Ossetia officials. Georgian Officials put the number at approximately 30, with most of those being military personel. Neither count has yet to be independently confirmed.
Continued posturing between Russia and Georgia, with neither conceding to possible cease fire as of yet. Both lay claim to control over provincial capital of South Ossetia, (Tskhinvali).
Georgian Prez. Saakashvili is expected to enact martial law within a few hours if need be, to directly deal with Russia.
Russia has advised that any condition of their withdrawing would be based on Georgia's withdrawl to pre-battle locales.
U.S. expected to release Georgian troops from Iraq duties to return home. U.S. Caucasus envoy (Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza) in route to assist in the mediation to end the bloodshed. Condelezza Rice requested of Moscow to cease all hostilities. Many other world regions joined in call for mutual cease fire.
Now here's the kicker. There's a pretty interesting analysis I found on Deutsche Welle DW-World's site. It pretty much lays out that even though Russia may really, really, want to take back Abkazia and South Ossetia, it may prove to be more costly than they are aware of. Or, willing to pay, to get them. Terrain and access are the primary points in the analysis, and it's worth a read; http://tinyurl.com/58eqhx
Now this isn't to say they can't or won't be able to do it, should open war continue. But it does lend credence to the difficulties Russia may/could face, should they persist.
A good review of the mass media, thanks. Indeed, most of the population of the South Ossetia has Russian passports, as well as passports of South Ossetia. South Ossetia didn't recognize the state of Georgia after the dissolution of USSR and didn't want to be part of it because they feared of ethnic cleansing, which actually took place during the conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia later on.
But it is wrong to think that Russia wants South Ossetia or Abkhazia to be part of Russia. We have enough poor regions in present Russia, and don't want new *extremely* poor regions with destroyed economics. It is the people who live there claims they want ot be part of Russia, because then they will have a part of Russian oil pie and other benefits. Take a look at Chechnya forex, which receive enourmous amount of money from Moscow producing almost nothing.
What is Russia doing now, is just showing that we won't be quiet when our peacekeepers and citizens being killed in South Ossetia or whatever else in the world. It is sad that the people who will answer for the crime of Saakashvili are poor Georgian people, but that's how the things are being done in this unfair world.
With Best Regards,
Alex
a Russian citizen working in Canada
Yeah, now it is really starting to get ugly, as other Nations are stirring the pot.
There are just notes from the last few AP wires to come out over the last 2 hours;
tinyurl.com/56jn4d - "KIEV, Ukraine - Ukraine warned Russia on Sunday it could bar Russian navy ships from returning to their base in the Crimea because of their deployment to Georgia's coast." The Ukraine has also been seeking to intergrate with the West and NATO. That would be added unhappiness for Russia.
tinyurl.com/5j5j2k - "SUKHUMI, Georgia - Separatist authorities in Georgia's breakaway province of Abkhazia mobilized the army and called up reservists Sunday to drive Georgian government forces out of the small part of the province still under Georgian control." Abkhazia forces have begun to mass, which will prove difficult for Georgia to deal with since the majority of their forces have been dealing with Russia.
But there is a slight glimmer of some hope, as it appears that Georgian forces HAVE pulled out of South Ossetia. Russian officials say they need to verify this, as they "Don't trust the other side." tinyurl.com/5mcuq7 - TBILISI, Georgia - A senior Georgian official said Georgian troops on Sunday had fully pulled out of the breakaway province of South Ossetia, as Russia has demanded.
Hopefully, any further actions can be dealt with at the table.
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